Fall 2000, Vol 25, No 3

Abstract: The industry is roughly 10 long years past that brain damage period of the late 1980s. All industry players are trying to assess the next phase of the real estate cycle. We tend to study the physical and capital markets, and complete rigorous economic analyses to find clues about the state of the market. However, the ultimate issue is predicting performance—realized versus expected total returns. The purpose of this manuscript is to uncover if a historical return analysis can provide any clues as to what is in store for the future of the industry.